Info-Gap Analysis of Risk and Reliability

03 6057

Syllabus, course outline and project guidelines

Midterm exam grades, moed alef.

Midterm exam, moed alef.

Midterm exam, moed alef, solutions: Q1: 94(a).   Q2: 94(c).   Q3: 94(f).   Q4: 94(g).

Midterm exam grades, moed alef and bet.

Midterm exam, moed bet.

Midteerm exam, moed bet, solutions: Q1: 95(a).   Q2: 95(b).    Q3: 95(c).   Q4: 95(d).

Upcoming Lectures

(Links to lecture note files are further down on this page)

Each lecture lists sources, where IDGT refers to the book Info-Gap Decision Theory by Yakov Ben-Haim.

Lecture notes on Info-Gap Uncertainty, pp.2-12, 15-19. Source: IGDT, sections 2.1-2.3. Done.

Lecture notes on Conservation Management, or, Robustness, Expected Utility and the Sumatran Rhinoceros. Source: Helen M.Regan, Yakov Ben-Haim, Bill Landford, Will G.Wilson, Per Lundberg, Sandy J.Andelman and Mark A.Burgman, 2005, Robust decision making under severe uncertainty for conservation management, Ecological Applications, vol.15(4): 1471-1477. Done.

Lecture notes on Info-Gap Estimation and Forecasting. Source: Yakov Ben-Haim, 2005, Info-gap Decision Theory For Engineering Design. Or: Why ‘Good’ is Preferable to ‘Best’, appearing as chapter 11 in Engineering Design Reliability Handbook, Edited by Efstratios Nikolaidis, Dan M.Ghiocel and Surendra Singhal, CRC Press, Boca Raton.

  • Estimation of slope with uncertain data, pp.3-8. Related source: Yakov Ben-Haim, Info-Gap Economics, section 6.1. Done.
  • Tychonov regularization, pp.23-29. Done.
  • Estimating a pdf from data, pp.31-34. Source: IGDT section 3.2.13. Done.
  • Forecasting with an uncertain linear system, pp.35-41. Source: Yakov Ben-Haim, 2008, Info-gap forecasting and the advantage of sub-optimal models, European Journal of Operational Research, 197: 203-213. Done.

Lecture notes on Info-Gap Uncertainty: Why uncertainty models are convex, pp.26-28. Source: IGDT section 2.4. Done.

Lecture notes on the Optimizer’s Curse. Done.

Lecture notes on Robust-Satisficing Behavior. Source: IGDT chapter 11.

  • Ellsberg’s paradox, pp. 4-8. Source: IGDT section 11.1. Done.
  • Allais paradox, pp.9-14. Source: IGDT section 11.2.
  • Is Bin Laden at Abbottabad? pp.41-47. Done.

Lecture notes on robustness and opportuneness:

  • Portfolio-like investments, pp.49-56. Source: IGDT section 3.2.7.
  • Search and evasion, pp.57-59. Source: IGDT section 3.2.9.
  • Assay design, pp.60-63. Source: IGDT section 3.2.10.
  • Choosing a sample size, pp.64-66.
  • Military effectiveness: Net assessment with WEI-WUV, pp.75-90.

Lecture Notes

Performance vs. Robustness of a Cantilever

Info-Gap Uncertainty

Robustness and opportuneness

Project management with duration uncertainty

Info-gap estimation and forecasting

Value judgment in risk assessment

Hybrid uncertainty

Robust-Satisficing Behavior

Games with Uncertain Preferences

Conservation management, or, robustness, expected utility and the Sumatran rhinoceros

Info-gap learning

Equity premium puzzle

Gambling and Risk-Sensitivity

Optimizer’s Curse

Homework

Homework problems on Robustness and Opportuneness

HW1: Choose the larger number. Do parts a and b. (ps1_rk.pdf, #10, a,b). Here’s the solution.

HW2: Embedded expected utility. Do parts a – d. (ps2-02.pdf, #32, a-d). Here’s the solution.

HW3: (1) Non-linear force deflection (ps2-02.pdf #31). (2) Estimate spring stiffness (ps2-02.pdf #38). Solution to #31 here. Solution to #38 here.

HW4: (1) Trigger mechanism (ps2-02.pdf #41). (2) Cantilever (ps2-02.pdf #42, a, b). Here are the  statements and solutions.

HW5: Random events and failure (ps2-02.pdf #70 a, c and d). Here’s the statement and solution.

HW6: Simple harmonic oscillator (ps2-02.pdf #15, a and b). Here’s the statement and solution. 

HW7: Satellite targeting (ps2-02.pdf #13). Here’s the statement and solution.

HW8: Time to recovery (ps2-02.pdf, #90, a-c). Here’s the statement and solution.

HW9: Elastic system with uncertainties (ps2-02.pdf, #92 a-d). Here’s the statement and solution.

HW10: Braking system (ps2-02.pdf, #45). Here’s the file.

HW???: Heat conduction (ps2-02.pdf #14). Here’s the file.