Info-Gap Analysis of Risk and Reliability

03 6057

THIS YEAR REMOTELY BY ZOOM.

The zoom address for lectures and exercises is: https://technion.zoom.us/j/92327427307

Syllabus, course outline and project guidelines

Midterm grades.

Final grades.

Upcoming Lectures

(Links to lecture note files are further down on this page)

Each lecture lists sources, where IDGT refers to the book Info-Gap Decision Theory by Yakov Ben-Haim.

Lecture. Lecture notes on Info-Gap Uncertainty, pp.2-12, 15-19. Source: IGDT, sections 2.1-2.3. Done.

Lecture.  Lecture notes on Conservation Management, or, Robustness, Expected Utility and the Sumatran Rhinoceros. Source: Helen M.Regan, Yakov Ben-Haim, Bill Landford, Will G.Wilson, Per Lundberg, Sandy J.Andelman and Mark A.Burgman, 2005, Robust decision making under severe uncertainty for conservation management, Ecological Applications, vol.15(4): 1471-1477. Done.

Lectures. Lecture notes on Info-Gap Estimation and Forecasting. Sources: Yakov Ben-Haim, 2005, Info-gap Decision Theory For Engineering Design. Or: Why ‘Good’ is Preferable to ‘Best’, appearing as chapter 11 in Engineering Design Reliability Handbook, Edited by Efstratios Nikolaidis, Dan M.Ghiocel and Surendra Singhal, CRC Press, Boca Raton.

  • Estimation of slope with uncertain data: fractional-error parameter uncertainty, pp.3-10. Related source: Yakov Ben-Haim, Info-Gap Economics, section 6.1. Done.
  • Model estimation with Fourier-ellipsoid functional uncertainty, pp. 11-13. Done.
  • Model estimation with uncertain transient disturbances, pp. 14-15. Done.
  • (System identification, pp.16-29.)
  • Tychonov regularization, pp.30-36. Done.
  • Estimating a pdf from data, pp.37-41. Source: IGDT section 3.2.13. Done.
  • Forecasting with an uncertain linear system, pp.42-49. Source: Yakov Ben-Haim, 2008, Info-gap forecasting and the advantage of sub-optimal models, European Journal of Operational Research, 197: 203-213. Done.

Lecture.  Lecture notes on robustness and opportuneness:

  • Portfolio-like investments, pp.49-56. Source: IGDT section 3.2.7. Done.
  • Search and evasion, pp.57-59. Source: IGDT section 3.2.9. Done.
  • Military effectiveness: Net assessment with WEI-WUV, pp.75-78. Source:  Ben-Haim, Military Operations Research, 23(4): 37-49. Done.
  • Behavioral response to feedback, pp.92-100. Done.

Lecture. Lecture notes on Info-Gap Uncertainty: Why uncertainty models are convex, pp.26-28. Source: IGDT section 2.4. Done.

Lecture. Lecture notes on the Optimizer’s Curse. Done.

Lecture. Lecture notes on Robust-Satisficing Behavior. Source: IGDT chapter 11.

  • Ellsberg’s paradox, pp. 4-8. Source: IGDT section 11.1. Done.
  • Allais paradox, pp.9-14. Source: IGDT section 11.2. Done.
  • Info-gap analysis of expected-utility risk aversion, pp.16-19. Source: IGDT section 11.3. Done.
  • Info-gap robust-satisficing foraging, pp.20-23. Done.
  • Is Bin Laden at Abbottabad? pp.41-47. Done.

Lectures. Lecture notes on robustness and opportuneness:

  • Assay design, pp.61-67. Source: IGDT section 3.2.10. Done.
  • Vibrating cantilever, pp.29-37.
  • Strategic asset allocation, pp.68-74.
  • Monitoring health and safety, pp, 102-108. Done.

Lecture. Lecture notes of value judgments in risk assessment, pp.2-29. Done.

Lecture. Lecture notes on info-gap learning. pp.2-23. Done.

Lecture. Lectures notes on project management with duration uncertainty. Done.

Lecture. Lecture notes on hybrid uncertainties, pp.2-28.

Lecture. Equity premium puzzle.

Lecture. Lecture notes on Strategic Interactions: Games with Uncertain Preferences, pp.2-19.

Recordings of Lectures and Exercise Sessions

Lecture Notes

Performance vs. Robustness of a Cantilever

Info-Gap Uncertainty

Robustness and opportuneness

Project management with duration uncertainty

Info-gap estimation and forecasting

Value judgment in risk assessment

Hybrid uncertainty

Robust-Satisficing Behavior

Games with Uncertain Preferences

Conservation management, or, robustness, expected utility and the Sumatran rhinoceros

Info-gap learning

Equity premium puzzle

Gambling and Risk-Sensitivity

Optimizer’s Curse

Homework

Homework problems on Robustness and Opportuneness

Homework problems on Info-Gap Uncertainty

Exercise 1: (1) Problem 9 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

(2) Problem 10 a, b from the file “Homework problems on info-gap uncertainty”. Solution.

Exercise 2: (1) Problem 4 a-d from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

(2) Problem 32 a-d from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

Exercise 3:  Problems 31 and 38 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solutions to problem 31 and problem 38.

Exercise 4:  Problem 43 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

Exercise 5:  Problems 88 (a), and then 70 (a)-(e), from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solutions to problem 70 and problem 88.

Exercise 6:  Problem 66 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

Exercise 7:  Problem 92 (a)-(d) from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

Exercise 8:  Problems 59 (a)-(f) and 53 (a)-(f) from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solutions for problem 59 and problem 53.

Exercise 9:  Problems 100 and 101 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solutions to problems 100, 101.

Exercise 10:  Problem 90 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

Exercise 11:  Problems 47 (b) and 61 (a)-(f) from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solutions to problems 47 and 61.

Exercise 12: Problem 30 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.

Exercise 13: Problem 55 from the file “Homework problems on robustness and opportuneness”. Solution.